As Xi Jinping embarks on his third term as China's president, the world's most populous nation has lost some of the zeal for growth, experimentation and global collaboration that defined it two decades ago. In its place, both Xi and China are focusing on security above everything else, argues Bloomberg Chief Economist Tom Orlik. Today, Beijing is "fighting with the US, fighting against pandemics, trying to secure what it has rather than open up and explore new opportunities," Orlik says. Everyone else is left trying to figure out how to cope with this less-freewheeling China.
On this week's Stephanomics, we delve into the present and future of China's relations with the rest of the world following the Chinese Communist Party Congress. First, host Stephanie Flanders talks with Orlik about what a third term of Xi means. It's arguable China isn't in immediate danger of slipping into bad governance, and that--for all the economic turmoil of its "zero Covid" policy--China has done a better job protecting citizens from the coronavirus than the West. In the long term, though, there are dangers. Vital positions in China's central bank or its Ministry of Finance could be staffed by old-guard bureaucrats instead of dynamic reformers, Orlik says.
Next, reporter Carolynn Look and editor James Mayger share how Europe's own relationship with China is fraying over reports of Chinese human rights abuses and anger over aggressive trade tactics against Lithuania. Still, for all the handwringing, few European companies show signs of scaling back investments in China. Finally, we reflect on an alarming speech by Scottish-born historian Niall Ferguson at a recent Group of 30 conference. He argues that, while everyone's worried that the 2020s will see a repeat of the inflationary 1970s, we may be fortunate if that's all that happens, given the prospect of economic calamity and global war.
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