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Episode 36: The Coming Recession and Monster Default Cycle; why Illiquidity is Concealing Huge Risks; the Rise of Risk-free Yield and what it Means for Asset-Allocation

Complexity Premia

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Bonds and Bonds in February - What's Next?

In February, the floating rate bond benchmark in Australia returned a solid 0.43%. In contrast, the fixed rate bond benchmark called the OZ bond opposite bond index lost 1.32% as long-term bond yields crept higher. Aussie shares also lost 2.38% in the month. As an aside, Bitcoin has once again slumped after climbing to almost $25,000. It has plunged to $22,000 on the back of a US bank,. Silvergate, potentially toppling over as a result of its exposures to collapsing crypto. The record Aussie housing crash that we've forecast is October 2021 is very likely to continue with gusta.

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