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How Many Hard Steps?
The two most plausibly diagnostic Earth duration seems to be the one remaining after now before Earth becomes uninhabitable for complex life. The key point is on average, these things on any one random planet would take trillions or trillions of years, just a really long time. And so we're really lucky that they all happened really fast in a short time before our window closed. We should overall roughly expect advanced life to appear as a power law in time.