Geopolitical Risk and the US Economy

The U.S. economy surprised to the upside in 2023 as consumers shrugged off a number of headwinds. With inflation abating and the Federal Reserve facing less pressure to hike interest rates, recession risks are fading. But they can’t be fully discounted given high interest rates, geopolitical turmoil, declining savings, and political uncertainty. Slower growth with somewhat higher unemployment is the most likely outcome. Call it a slowcession.

Follow Mark Zandi @MarkZandi, Cris deRitis @MiddleWayEcon, and Marisa DiNatale on LinkedIn for additional insight.

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