4min chapter

Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg cover image

Critiquing Effective Altruism (with Michael Nielsen and Ajeya Cotra)

Clearer Thinking with Spencer Greenberg

CHAPTER

The Importance of Expected Value Maximization

It's hard to say actually with any confidence what Newton thought he was doing. The actual practice of doing expected value calculations is honestly something that when I got to OpenFilla, I was surprised we did a lot less of than I thought we would. As somebody who's tried to build models of things and calculate the impact of grants, it's pretty hard and it's often not worth it.

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