According to Michael Gapen, Bank of America's chief economist, the US economy will likely face a mild recession later this year, but the risk of a severe economic downturn appears low as of now. A correction of labor-market imbalances is needed to bring inflation back down to the Federal Reserve's 2% target, and that typically looks like a mild recession. With risks receding, stress in the banking sector stabilizing, and macroeconomic trends looking good, Gapen said the Fed faces a tough decision regarding interest rates and investors can't completely rule out the possibility of another hike.
In this episode of The Higher Standard, Chris and Saied examine this news and determine the effect it will have on the economy as a whole.
They discuss a report from the Labor Department, indicating that initial filings for unemployment benefits totaled a seasonally adjusted 261,000 for the week ended June 3, an increase of 28,000 from the upwardly revised level of the previous period.
Chris and Saied look at data from Realtor.com with the National Association of Realtors, showing that the popular 30-year fixed mortgage rate hovered in the high-6% range in May. At that level, buyers with an annual income of $100,000, slightly above the national median, could afford a house with a maximum price of about $341,000, however just 39% of the homes for sale were listed at or below that price point in May.
They also offer some thoughts on a new real estate transfer tax in Los Angeles, that was supposed to give the city an average of $56 million a month in its first year. However, in its first month, the Measure ULA tax took in $3.6 million. For transactions closing in April, the city received the revenue from five deals that were subject to the new tax.
Join Chris and Saied for this fascinating and informative conversation.
Enjoy!
What You’ll Learn in this Show:
- Why growth is often used as a metaphor of prosperity.
- Why a credit crunch has already begun in the commercial office real estate.
- Why Larry Summers thinks the Fed has made a huge mistake, and why that's wrong.
- And so much more...
Resources:
"The US will face a mild recession, but the risk of a 'hard landing' is currently low, Bank of America's chief economist says" (Business Insider)
"Jobless claims increase more than expected to their highest since October 2021" (CNBC)
"U.S. consumer-credit growth accelerates in April to fastest pace in five months" (MarketWatch)
"The shortage of houses is hitting some people and areas harder than others" (CNBC)
"The “mansion tax” was supposed to bring in $56M monthly. It took in $3.6M" (TheRealDeal)
"Larry Summers says that the Fed should consider doubling down on interest rates in July if it pauses in June because the risk of ‘overheating the economy’" (Fortune)
"Are home prices falling? See what it’s like in your area." (Washington Post)
