The black swan point in these kind of settings is the unexpected event that you have no past experience with. It's not just the risk that we normally associate with te stock market, which ist can go up and down,. but the risk that is unknown y. You depend on stock market, if you have neighbours who are likely to get rich, then your risk here missing on a big stock ok? Say that again. Your risk is not necessarily losing money in the stock market. Your risk can be missing on ser opportunity, of course. But i'm not too much involved in markets from that perspective, so i'm not aware of all the losses.
Nassim Taleb talks about the challenges of coping with uncertainty, predicting events, and understanding history. This wide-ranging conversation looks at investment, health, history and other areas where data play a key role. Taleb, the author of Fooled By Randomness and The Black Swan, imagines two countries, Mediocristan and Extremistan where the ability to understand the past and predict the future is radically different. Taleb's contention is that we often bring our intuition from Mediocristan for the events of Extremistan, leading us to error. The result is a tendency to be blind-sided by the unexpected.