Exploring Prediction and Audience Engagement Through Super Forecasting

This chapter delves into the art of prediction and forecasting, examining the potential of engaging audiences to assess their abilities as 'super forecasters' in geopolitical and economic contexts. It also features a sponsor segment highlighting the nutritional supplement AG1 by Athletic Greens, emphasizing its benefits for simplifying nutrition.

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Brought to you by Athletic Greens’s AG1 all-in-one nutritional supplement, House of Macadamias delicious and nutritious nuts, and Shopify global commerce platform providing tools to start, grow, market, and manage a retail business.

Michael Mauboussin (@mjmauboussin) is Head of Consilient Research on Counterpoint Global at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.

Prior to joining Counterpoint Global, Michael was Director of Research at BlueMountain Capital, Head of Global Financial Strategies at Credit Suisse, and Chief Investment Strategist at Legg Mason Capital Management. Michael originally joined Credit Suisse in 1992 as a packaged food industry analyst and was named Chief U.S. Investment Strategist in 1999.

Michael is the author of The Success Equation: Untangling Skill and Luck in Business, Sports, and Investing, Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition, and More Than You Know: Finding Financial Wisdom in Unconventional Places. More Than You Know was named one of "The 100 Best Business Books of All Time" by 800-CEO-READ, one of the best business books by BusinessWeek (2006), and best economics book by Strategy+Business (2006). Michael is also co-author, with Alfred Rappaport, of Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns.

Michael has been an adjunct professor of finance at Columbia Business School since 1993 and is on the faculty of the Heilbrunn Center for Graham and Dodd Investing. He received the Dean's Award for Teaching Excellence in 2009 and 2016 and the Graham & Dodd, Murray, Greenwald Prize for Value Investing in 2021.

Michael earned an A.B. from Georgetown University. He is chairman emeritus of the board of trustees of the Santa Fe Institute, a leading center for multidisciplinary research in complex systems theory.

Please enjoy!

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This episode is also brought to you by House of Macadamias delicious and nutritious nuts! I love macadamia nuts and have been enjoying them often since keto expert Dr. Dominic D’Agostino recommended them on the podcast in 2015. They taste great, and with more healthy, monounsaturated fat than both olive oil and avocados, 27% fewer carbs than almonds, and more than 50% fewer carbs than cashews, they’re the perfect low-carb, keto-friendly, nutty snack. In fact, I just ate a handful of lightly white-chocolate-covered macadamias about an hour ago to keep me going through the afternoon until dinner. And I will say this: House of Macadamias produces the best-tasting macadamia nuts I’ve ever eaten… by far.

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This episode is also brought to you by Athletic Greens. I get asked all the time, “If you could use only one supplement, what would it be?” My answer is usually AG1 by Athletic Greens, my all-in-one nutritional insurance. I recommended it in The 4-Hour Body in 2010 and did not get paid to do so. I do my best with nutrient-dense meals, of course, but AG further covers my bases with vitamins, minerals, and whole-food-sourced micronutrients that support gut health and the immune system.

Right now, Athletic Greens is offering you their Vitamin D Liquid Formula free with your first subscription purchase—a vital nutrient for a strong immune system and strong bones. Visit AthleticGreens.com/Tim to claim this special offer today and receive the free Vitamin D Liquid Formula (and 5 free travel packs) with your first subscription purchase! That’s up to a one-year supply of Vitamin D as added value when you try their delicious and comprehensive all-in-one daily greens product.

[07:12] Latin roots.

[09:14] No business education? No problem!

[12:15] The best food industry analyst.

[15:36] Consilience.

[19:58] Complex adaptive systems.

[23:26] Diversity.

[26:23] The wisdom of crowds.

[32:42] The minimum effective dose of cognitive diversity.

[36:02] Designing experiments.

[43:49] Against the Gods and Complexity.

[49:56] Value investing and the Santa Fe Institute.

[53:57] A brief 21st-century asset class tour.