Luck vs. Skill in Investing

This chapter explores the interplay between luck and skill in investing, analyzing a 26-year performance track record against the S&P 500. Through personal anecdotes and reflections on decision-making, it emphasizes the importance of understanding investment outcomes and the need for honesty in financial choices.

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Episode notes

In this episode, Stig Brodersen talks with Guy Spier about how he has achieved his impressive track record and whether you can adjust a track record for luck. Since 1997, Guy Spier’s fund has performed 9.3% vs. 8.7% annually for the S&P500.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

00:00 - Intro

02:05 - What we can learn from royal families about moats in business.

26:43 - How Guy Spier’s track record would look if we adjusted to luck.

40:20 - If Guy would ever stop managing money.

49:49 - How to think about risk in your portfolio.

52:31 - Why it’s risky not to take risks.

56:40 - Why Guy wants to be truthful and honest and not present himself in the best possible light.

1:14:31 - How to think about position sizing.

1:21:53 - What is VALUEx?

1:37:23 - How Guy feels about being famous in the value investing community.

1:55:46 - How to live a life with givers, matchers, and takers.

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

BOOKS AND RESOURCES

Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Stig, Clay, Kyle, and the other community members.
Stig’s interview with Guy Spier about investing and life | YouTube Video.
Stig and Preston’s interview with Guy Spier on his book, The Education of a Value Investor | YouTube Video.
Stig and Preston’s interview with Guy Spier about his lunch with Warren Buffett | YouTube Video.
Guy Spier’s book, The Education of a Value Investor – read reviews of the book.
Subscribe to Guy Spier’s Free Newsletter.
Guy Spier’s podcast and website.
Adam Grant’s book, Giver and Take – read reviews of this book.
Learn more about ValueX in Dubai November 7-9.
Check out all the books mentioned and discussed in our podcast episodes here.
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