How to Forecast Your D2C Business

I tweeted a version of that episode title not long ago. It's nonsense: there is, of course, such a thing as revenue.

But in DTC, revenue is also one of the metrics I reference the least often. Instead, I'm constantly breaking it down into two smaller metrics, both of which tell me a lot more: New Customer Revenue and Returning Customer Revenue. In fact, those are the first two things I look at when I analyze a business.

In this episode I'll not only explain how I do that, but why I believe developing that same instinct is at the foundation of good growth thinking for every ecommerce brand.

EPISODE HIGHLIGHTS

• [00:00:09] New vs. Returning Customer Revenue. 
• [00:04:25] Returning customer revenue. 
• [00:06:11] High LTV customers.
• [00:09:27] Customer movement and strategy.
• [00:12:02] Forecasting ad spend and revenue. 
• [00:15:01] Forecasting DTC Business. 
• [00:19:38] CAC and LTV importance. 
• [00:20:47] Customer Revenue and Profit.
• [00:24:26] High LTV Brands.

EPISODE SPONSOR

Visit Settle at ⁠⁠www.settle.com/andrewfaris⁠⁠ for a complete platform to manage Bill Pay/AP with fast access to extended payment terms at competitive rates and no personal guarantee.

OTHER EPISODES REFERENCED IN THIS SHOW

• "What To Do When You Have Great LTV" (Apple, Spotify)

FOLLOW UP WITH ANDREW

• Follow Andrew on Twitter: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠@andrewjfaris⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠
• Email Andrew: podcast@ajfgrowth.com
• Work with Andrew: ⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠www.ajfgrowth.com⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠

EPISODE MUSIC

• Music Intro: "⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Tell Me Mama⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠" by The Devious Means
• Music Outro: "⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠Rusty Little Scissors⁠⁠⁠⁠⁠" by The Devious Means