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Programmed to Fail - 4. Planning-Programming-Budgeting

Acquisition Talk

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End Quote. The Trial and Error Method

PERT, systems analysis and PBBS create an institutional bias against error correction. PERT also neglects the benefits of uncertainty such as opportunities to generate vastly superior performance by change in technical directions. McNamara's increased confidence in predictions created major problems for one of his first acquisition initiatives,. The TFX program cost quadrupled even though the Navy dropped out after only eight aircraft; Air Force reduced its procurement to one-third the plan level.

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