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6min chapter
What's Happening In Global Macro?
The Macro Trading Floor
The ECB's Response Function to Inflation
The ECB is priced to keep terminal rates at 4% by late summer let's say and then to stay there on the US until December. I find that a relatively credible market neutral expectation you know without further recessionary information or an expecting inflation to slow down the trade now 4%. The French governor has been very vocal that they are closing in on peak territory for inflation so it will probably take until September or October for that ready to feed through in a convincing way. What could speak in favor of like a higher neutral rate in Europe? Laper false dynamics okay I don't see anywhere near the same labor false dynamics as we've seen in the US.
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