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Is That a Disastrous Szenario?
In the U.S., Treasury bonds are sort of that deflation insurance like product, super long duration instrument. In order to get this sort of 20-year period of entrenched deflation, you'd have to have declines in productivity and really almost like 0% GDP probably for decades. So is that going to happen? Personally, I think that's a low probability just because the demographic trends,. even as bad as they are in the United States and some of the developed world, they're not necessarily going to be negative.