The Variability of Monetary Policy and Economic Downturns

This chapter explores the concept of being 'fooled by randomness' in relation to the legs between monetary policy tightening and economic downturns. The speakers discuss their surprise at the variable legs in relation to their previous predictions and also delve into the end of immaculate disinflation in 2022. They analyze the current state of the market and its differences from their forecasts, covering equity markets, hidden tightening within equities, the unemployment rate's impact on consumer behavior, and the resilience of global bonds.