The Nth-company problem and market timing

For “deep tech” or industrial tech investors, a captivating idea on paper doesn’t always translate into a sustainable or viable business. Even a remarkable technological breakthrough isn’t guaranteed to survive the long sales cycles of the industrial world.

So which companies are worth the investment?

Ian Rountree, founder and partner at the venture firm Cantos, wrote a bare-bones thesis on X that offers guidance on this question. In it, Rountree lays out a stark list of the companies he invests in—and the ones he passes on.

In this episode, Shayle and Ian unpack his post and explore how it applies to the current landscape of hardware and industrial startups. They cover topics like:

• Why selling technology to large incumbents like automakers or utilities can be a death sentence for startups

• The pitfalls of "commercializing science" 

• Why capital risk to sell an end-product can be better business than licensing technology

• Why "weird" companies—"N of 1" startups—can generate huge amounts of talent and capital

• Why selling commodities (like electrons or minerals) can actually be a safer bet than entering a new market

• Real-world examples of full-stack success in the mining industry, including Earth AI and KoBold Metals

Latitude: Earth AI’s play in the hunt for critical minerals

Catalyst: Calibrating hype with Akshat Rathi

Catalyst: Climate tech startups need strong techno-economic analysis

Open Circuit: Pain, resilience, and bargain hunting for climate tech investors

Credits: Hosted by Shayle Kann. Produced and edited by Max Savage Levenson. Original music and engineering by Sean Marquand. Stephen Lacey is our executive editor. 

Catalyst is brought to you by Uplight. Uplight activates energy customers and their connected devices to generate, shift, and save energy—improving grid resilience and energy affordability while accelerating decarbonization. Learn how Uplight is helping utilities unlock flexible load at scale at uplight.com. 

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