The global economic and geopolitical order has long been balanced by the United States. Today, however, that traditional stabilizing role is in flux. The drivers of market uncertainty, typically resulting from changes in monetary policy and the economy, are increasingly linked to US politics. Fiscal strain, tariffs, and hyper-partisanship are sources of unpredictability reverberating across markets worldwide. In this context, it was a pleasure to welcome Alex Kazan, Partner and Co-head of the Geopolitical Practice at the Brunswick Group, back to the Alpha Exchange.
Our conversation explores just how we got to a point where the US is exporting risk to the rest of the world. Alex argues that this is not solely about Donald Trump but more the result of structural forces that have been building over time. The advent of social media and the technology that maximizes attention by algorithmically parsing individuals into one camp or the other and the twin shocks of the GFC and Pandemic have deepened partisanship and led to an erosion of institutional trust.
On the international front, Alex points to the growing willingness of policymakers to weaponize economic tools like tariffs, sanctions, and export controls. This policy volatility, he argues, has redefined how multinational firms think about resilience, supply chains, and risk. In this new environment, economic strategy and foreign policy are fused, and companies must learn to negotiate not just with markets, but with Washington itself. Finally, we turn to the global stage, where U.S.–China relations remain a critical axis of uncertainty. Alex offers a nuanced view: while risks of escalation remain, the very ambition and unpredictability of U.S. policy may also open space for recalibration—a potential “grand bargain” that could stabilize the system.
I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Alex Kazan.
