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2min chapter
Sam Bankman-Fried Revisited
What's Your Problem?
Go Big, Even if You Might Wind Up With Zero
You should really go really big, even if you probably will fail and wind up with zero. That's absolutely right. And I think one of the intuitions for why that's the case is this: The best possible thing is probably really good. It's probably orders of magnitude bigger than whatever you're sort of expecting. So any time that there is some non-zero and non-negligible chance of a really, really good outcome, are times when you're going to be incentivized more than seems natural, probably, to choose extreme outcomes.
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