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Ep 128: Steven Pinker’s ”Rationality” Chapter 5 ”Beliefs & Evidence (Bayesian Reasoning” Remarks & Analysis

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Is There a Correct Prior Ininabasian Problem?

The normative statement here is, you should want to be a better basian. Pinker writes that because there is no correct prior ininabasian problem, people's departure from the base rate provided by an experimenter is not necessarily fallacy. So yes, this idea of base rate, where you start with your priors. Even if there's no fact of the matter, there's no way of being correct here. It's tracking beliefs, personal credences. The credibility you think is in the prior, which you just make up. Especialy if you're a subject matter exburt just make it up. Where's our objective knowledge here? Popa wrote on objective

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