Favorite Prediction Markets and Curiosities

Molly asks about Calci markets; Alfred shares his interest in economic indicators and fine print in prediction markets.

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Alfred Lin, Partner at Sequoia Capital and three-time #1 Midas List investor, has backed some of the most transformative companies of the past two decades. His portfolio spans early bets on Airbnb, DoorDash, Uber, Zipline, Kalshi, and Commure to growth-stage partnerships with OpenAI and Citadel Securities, consistently identifying founders and businesses that redefine entire markets.

He continues this track record today with next-generation category creators like Profound, which is building AI-powered brand visibility, Nominal, which is powering mission-critical engineering with a unified data stack, and Clay, which evolved into a go-to-market engine by relentlessly adapting to innovation.

In this conversation, Alfred shares his philosophy on founder-market fit, resilience, and backing visionaries who create new categories. He reflects on Airbnb’s near-collapse during COVID, DoorDash’s rise, and Sequoia’s landmark investment in Citadel Securities, while breaking down how he evaluates IPOs, valuations in the AI era, and why the next decade will be defined by reimagined consumer experiences.

Alfred Lin: https://x.com/Alfred_Lin

Molly O’Shea: ⁠https://x.com/MollySOShea⁠

Sourcery: ⁠https://x.com/sourceryvc

𝐒𝐏𝐎𝐍𝐒𝐎𝐑𝐒

Brex—The modern finance platform, combining the world’s smartest corporate card with integrated expense management, banking, bill pay, & travel. https://brex.com/sourcery

Turing—Turing delivers top-tier talent, data, and tools to help AI labs improve model performance—and enables enterprises to turn those models into powerful, production-ready systems. https://turing.com/sourcery

Carta—Carta connects founders, investors, and limited partners through software purpose-built for private capital. Trusted by 65,000+ companies in 160+ countries, Carta’s platform of software & services lays the groundwork so you can build, invest, and scale with confidence. https://carta.com/sourcery

Kalshi—The largest prediction market and the only legal platform in the US where people can trade directly on the outcomes of future events: https://kalshi.com/sourcery

Follow Sourcery for the latest updates!

https://www.sourcery.vc/

𝐓𝐈𝐌𝐄𝐒𝐓𝐀𝐌𝐏𝐒

(00:00) Alfred Lin, Sequoia

(01:31) Why technology cycles move at 3-month speeds

(03:55) Why markets often consolidate to 2–3 leaders

(05:07) “Build for the world, not San Francisco”

(07:14) Airbnb’s COVID crisis and Brian Chesky’s leadership

(13:15) Culture under stress: resilience in tough times

(15:45) The essence of founder-market fit

(16:20) Motion ≠ progress: why velocity matters

(17:55) Resetting company culture in the AI era