2min chapter

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Fast and Frugal Time Series Forecasting

Data Skeptic

CHAPTER

The Behavior Side of Forecasting?

The idea of someone taking the forecast and then tweaking it makes me a little nervous that they may not understand it. Iam even reminded of the famous isaac asamov story, where there are a series of people making judgment calls, and then the general flips a coin at the end to decide if he follows it or not. The idea is that more often than not, apling judgment can be harmful to the forecast accuracy. But equally, if there is significant information with the manates that is not available with a system with e forecast, then it might be the case that such interventions might be beneficial.

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