If Taiwan is captured, all countries on the first island chain as it's known would be much more vulnerable. As one American military officer put it to me, Taiwan is the cork in the bottle. If it goes, China spills out. So what can America do realistically to avoid going to war? The Americans really have a delicate balancing act to play here. They need to do enough to increase China's doubts about its ability to invade. But at the same time they must not provoke China into thinking that it has no choice but to gamble on war.