Intro

This chapter delves into the SAM rule as a recession indicator signaling caution for the US economy. It examines current labor market dynamics, including low unemployment and wage growth, while contemplating the impact of rising unemployment on Federal Reserve interest rate strategies.

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One of the most reliable recession indicators, the “Sahm Rule,” just issued a “yellow flag” for the economy. Even now, with low unemployment, high spending, and overall economic growth, we aren’t protected from a recession or economic downturn. Will the US economy be able to dodge this recession, and will the Fed be fast enough to save us from falling into a state of high unemployment and meager economic growth?

The Washington Post’s Heather Long joins us to share the latest data on the labor market, unemployment rate, Fed rate cuts, and why this particular recession indicator is going off now. First, we talk about why there is so much positivity in the job market and why most people won’t notice the cracks starting to form. With tech jobs getting slashed and government jobs growing, are we moving in the right direction?

Heather also explains a strong recession indicator, the “Sahm Rule,” and why it’s throwing up a “yellow flag” warning even with the hot job market. Finally, we’ll touch on interest rates, whether the Fed will actually come through with a rate cut this year, and how fast future rate cuts could come after the first.

In This Episode We Cover

The unemployment-based recession indicator that’s throwing up “yellow flags”

Which industries are hiring and which are firing in 2024

What the “unemployment rate” really means, and why most people get this wrong

Immigration’s HUGE effect on unemployment and how it may be skewing the numbers

The Fed’s tricky decision to make and whether rate cuts could help this situation

And So Much More!

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