Our guest Mika Kastenholz shares his insights running a global, cross-asset class macro trading business within a major investment bank in this episode. We learn about potential volatility mismatches in the equity index and fixed income markets, distortions in the yield curve caused by regulatory changes, and a general decline in the appetite for risk taking in the banking sector post-2008. Mika also discusses the viability of crisis prediction using quantitative models, and positioning risk in the convertible bond market. This episode offers a rare perspective into the way a major sell side player thinks about risk and opportunity.
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Episode TimeStamps:
02:20 - Introduction to Mika Kastenholz
09:25 - Working with econophysics
10:52 - Finding the perfect size
12:05 - Mika's view on naive sizing
13:19 - The macro perspective
16:27 - Depressed commodities and the inverted yield curve
18:46 - A changing environment
21:01 - The impact of post 2008 regulations
23:29 - Hedging the autocallable structures
29:30 - Mika's approach to convertible bond arbitrage
31:42 - Swing options - a relic of the past?
33:30 - Has the depth of the markets decreased?
35:31 - How does cross margining work today?
36:51 - What happens with a large client trade?
38:59 - Dealing with regulations
42:51 - Are banks too focused on short-term dynamic risk management?
45:48 - What if every bank had the same risk limits?
48:15 - Are the banks aware of network effects?
50:13 - Is the complex systems push overstated?
54:09 - An anomaly that could be exploited?
57:06 - A confused market
59:19 - The outlook for the term premia
01:01:10 - Key takeaways from Niels
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