4min chapter

"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg cover image

China’s Housing Bubble, Healthcare Crisis, and Taiwan Relations

"Econ 102" with Noah Smith and Erik Torenberg

CHAPTER

The Reasonable Chance We Will Invade Taiwan

I think that there's a reasonable chance we will and a reasonable chance that we won't because it would be horribly costly and risky for China to do this. If they feel this burning need to like, you know, invade and conquer Taiwan, like right now they're going to do it, right? Yeah. And what is the calculus there? Like what's the what's the prize of what Taiwan would bring such that it would make sense for them to take that huge of a risk. I don't think that controlling Taiwan's semiconductor industry is a big piece of the calculus for China because honestly Taiwan's just going to blow it up as soon as the soldiers start landing.

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