Hugo Navarro of Undervalued and Undercovered discusses NCR Atlas (NATL), a company operating at the intersection of legacy cash infrastructure and modern outsourcing economics. The conversation centers on whether ATMs represent a declining business or a misunderstood opportunity, unpacking NCR Atlas’s valuation, free cash flow profile, and competitive positioning within a duopoly market. Hugo outlines the company’s ATM-as-a-service strategy, highlighting scale advantages, incremental margins, and incentives for banks to outsource servicing.
See Hugo's NATL write up here: https://smallcaptreasures.substack.com/p/a-127-fcf-yielding-duopoly-growing?utm_source=publication-search
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[00:00:00] Podcast and guest introduction
[00:04:01] NCR Atlas business overview
[00:05:27] Why valuation appears cheap
[00:07:05] Cash usage decline debate
[00:12:55] ATM-as-a-service thesis
[00:16:54] ATM replacement cycle explained
[00:19:15] Industry scale and servicing
[00:20:56] Why banks outsource ATMs
[00:24:07] Incremental margin economics
[00:26:37] Long-term ATM demand risks
[00:35:51] Declining industry outsourcing logic
[00:38:34] Free cash flow drivers
[00:41:11] Share gains from banks
[00:47:36] Accounting and governance concerns
[00:53:22] Diebold competitive comparison
[00:56:04] Tariffs and guidance outlook
[00:57:33] Interest rate sensitivity
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Production and editing by The Podcast Consultant - https://thepodcastconsultant.com/
