The Probability of a Runaway, Self Fulfilling Momentum Return

 Major Topics: Process and Decision Making Improvement

Jake Taylor is CEO of Farnam Street Investments, Co-Host of Value After Hours, Host of the 5GQ podcast, author of The Rebel Allocator, and Founder of journalytic.com. Jake and Bill met at Berkshire and immediately became friends. While they invest differently, they have more in common than Value After Hours fans may think.

On Value After Hours Jake is known for his "veggie" segments, which are segments that tie investing ideas to other worldy concepts. He is very passionate about making the best decisions possible and drawing from a wide range of subjects.

We hope this episode highlights how Jake thinks about the world and spreads better decision making. Topics covered include:

-Base rates underpinning underwriting

-Bayesian updating

-Tracking what happens vs what you thought would happen

- Few stocks driving the majority of return.  See https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2900447

- W. Brian Arthur's theory of Returns to Scale. See https://hbr.org/1996/07/increasing-returns-and-the-new-world-of-business

- And much more

We hope you enjoy this conversation!

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