The Changing Role of Bonds and the Case for Alternatives

David Kelly, Chief Global Strategist at J.P. Morgan joins Alan Dunne in this episode for a big picture perspective on the outlook for the global economy and the implications for asset allocation. We discuss why David is upbeat on the outlook for the US economy with a key part of his optimism resting on the fact that no individual sectors appears stretched or out of balance, which is normally the case prior to a recession. The recent rise in bond yields has been a key focus in markets – we discuss what has driven this and why David is optimistic on the outlook for inflation and bonds looking ahead. We also discuss asset allocation more broadly, the outlook for the 60-40 portfolio and the longer term themes (such as the investment implications of climate change and the shift to more active industrial policy) which are addressed in JP Morgan Asset Management’s recent Long Term Capital Markets Assumptions publication. 

-----

50 YEARS OF TREND FOLLOWING BOOK AND BEHIND-THE-SCENES VIDEO FOR ACCREDITED INVESTORS - CLICK HERE

-----

Follow Niels on Twitter, LinkedIn, YouTube or via the TTU website.

IT’s TRUE ? – most CIO’s read 50+ books each year – get your FREE copy of the Ultimate Guide to the Best Investment Books ever written here.

And you can get a free copy of my latest book “Ten Reasons to Add Trend Following to Your Portfolio” here.

Learn more about the Trend Barometer here.

Send your questions to info@toptradersunplugged.com

And please share this episode with a like-minded friend and leave an honest Rating & Review on iTunes or Spotify so more people can discover the podcast.

Follow Alan on Twitter.

Follow David on LinkedIn.

Episode TimeStamps:

02:42 - Introduction to David Kelly

05:44 - What has become of the recession?

08:38 - Are we missing an accident?

11:09 - Why is the saving rate in the U.S. so low?

13:29 - Is this cycle unusual compared to the past?

14:52 - Are central bankers becoming arrogant?

17:15 - What happened to the bond market?

19:31 - High debt and high deficit - a new normal?

21:48 - Kelly's outlook for the next decade

23:42 - Inflation in the U.S.

27:29 - A new equilibrium

30:14 - Discussing inflation on a global scale

33:35 - The state of the asset allocation environment

35:37 - Should you look beyond the 60/40 portfolio?

39:04 - The magnificent seven

40:50 - A political mess

44:51 - How will Artificial Intelligence impact the economy?

47:55 - Managing the labour shortage

50:13 - An all-time high misery

51:36 - A discontent with the economy

53:50 - An outlook of the political landscape

56:14 - How does the shifting demographics impact the economy?

57:57 - Is an aging population disinflationary?

59:07 - Advice for investors

01:01:34 - Thanks for listening

Copyright © 2024 – CMC AG – All Rights Reserved

----

PLUS: Whenever you're ready... here are 3 ways I can help you in your investment Journey:

1. eBooks that cover key topics that you need to know about

In my eBooks, I put together some key discoveries and things I have learnt during the more than 3 decades I have worked in the Trend Following industry, which I hope you will find useful. Click Here

2. Daily Trend Barometer and Market Score

One of the things I’m really proud of, is the fact that I have managed to published the Trend Barometer and Market Score each day for more than a decade...as these tools are really good at describing the environment for trend following managers as well as giving insights into the general positioning of a trend following strategy! Click Here

3. Other Resources that can help you

And if you are hungry for more useful resources from the trend following world...check out some precious resources that I have found over the years to be really valuable. Click Here

Privacy Policy

Disclaimer