Henrik Zeberg, head macro economist at SwissBlock and author of The Monetary House of Cards, joins Julia the morning after the midterms with a bold call: the bottom is in, and the final run of the longest bull market of our lifetimes starts now. He expects the Nasdaq to rally about 30%, with a dip around Thanksgiving and a top around January. Then a bust that he says follows the 2007 template, with the S&P potentially falling to about 3,500. Zeberg explains why markets often rally hardest as the economy rolls over, and walks through his business cycle framework: housing leads, jobs follow, and the consumer (“Mrs. Johnson”) decides everything. He argues the bust will be deflationary first. When the Fed steps in, he expects it to create stagflation it can’t fix. He says gold could dip to about $3,000 first before heading to $25,000–$30,000 in the 2030s, and that bond yields have already topped. The next domino he’s watching is private credit, which he calls the “nuclear bomb” that’s far bigger than people think.
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Links:
X: https://x.com/HenrikZeberg
Substack: https://henrikzeberg.substack.com/
Book: https://buy.stripe.com/aFacN62DQdYFbZt9APaR201
TEDx: https://youtu.be/DAmoawIOMbs?si=Infb0cLi8YPxdX4H
Timestamps:
0:00 Welcome Henrik Zeberg
1:19 “Now we rally”: why the bottom is in
3:33 AI’s first dominoes and a weakening economy
5:27 The 2007 template
5:57 New bull market or blow-off top?
7:44 Why markets rally when things are bad
10:13 Where the blow-off top began, and S&P 3,500
11:58 His business cycle framework
14:18 Housing leads, jobs follow
16:41 Why printing money can’t stop a recession
18:28 AI, the bubble and the Fourth Turning
25:13 Deflation first, then stagflation
28:15 Gold: why it falls first and $25,000–$30,000 later
32:05 Have bond yields topped?
35:19 Timing the top: January
38:04 What would change his call
39:21 Private credit: the “nuclear bomb”
42:39 Parting advice
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