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Confidence vs. Overconfidence | Idea Generation and Getting to ”No” Quickly

This Week in Intelligent Investing

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Investing - Is Everything a Probability?

S sorrow says that every investment is a testable hypothesis. The most interesting times are those where you know you're right, but the market doesn't realize it yet and what you're looking at absolutely confirms everything. Too much confidence is far more dangerous than too little confidence in markets. You need to take a thesis that some one else may have presented to you and make it your own. It's my single biggest source of return in my book.

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