TIP740: The Great Mental Models Part 1
We Study Billionaires - The Investor’s Podcast Network
Understanding Second Order Thinking in Investment Strategies
This chapter delves into the lessons from a cobra eradication program in British colonial India, highlighting the dangers of first order thinking. It emphasizes the importance of second order thinking in investment strategies, showcasing how a deeper understanding of market cycles can enhance decision-making and uncover unique opportunities.
On today’s episode, Kyle Grieve discusses the power of mental models, how they sharpen our thinking, and how they improve our decision-making in investing and everyday life. He explores various key concepts in general thinking, including the circle of competence, inversion, first-principles thinking, probabilistic thinking, and more.
IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 02:01 - What exactly are mental models? 04:37 - The three failures people have with interacting with reality. 08:43 - A simple 6-step framework for making mentals into a habit. 17:45 - How to utilize what you already know to gain an edge. 29:40 - The importance of thinking in first principles to improve your ability to innovate and simplify. 36:10 - How to use thought experiments to analyze a business. 41:14 - Why using second-order thinking can rapidly enhance your quality of thinking. 49:46 - How probabilistic thinking helps make sense of a dynamic world. 58:54 - Why spending time thinking about a problem backwards can improve your upside. 01:04:57 - Why you should focus on simple solutions over complex ones. And so much more!
Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.
BOOKS AND RESOURCES
- Join Clay and a select group of passionate value investors for a retreat in Big Sky, Montana. Learn more here.
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- Buy a copy of The Great Mental Models Vol. 1 here.
- Read Shane Parrish’s blog here here.
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