It's Hard To Be Humble
Choiceology with Katy Milkman
Overconfidence - What Is It?
contestants were armed with very limited information, yet they felt very comfortable making predictions that turned out to be nuts. About 90% of them overestimated the number that they could eat in a minute or two. Carnival games, sultines and the Battle of Midway, began small decisions, all distorted by overconfidence. So what is overconfidence, exactly? And when does it afflict us? Let's ask Don Moore.
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