The New York City subway system has been in place only since 2004. A preliminary analysis done by outside researchers found the projections to be reasonably accurate and cost overruns to be reasonably small, about 7% from the planning stages of a transportation project to completion. "People are very averse to using algorithms for all sorts of reasons that I think are a little crazy," says John Defterios.
Whether it’s a giant infrastructure plan or a humble kitchen renovation, it’ll inevitably take way too long and cost way too much. That’s because you suffer from “the planning fallacy.” (You also have an “optimism bias” and a bad case of overconfidence.) But don’t worry: we’ve got the solution.