Market Valuations and Expectations

This chapter analyzes current market valuations, focusing on the Shiller P-E ratio and its implications for expected stock returns. It explores the dynamics between growth and value stocks, while cautioning against over-reliance on historical performance for future predictions. The discussion also highlights the unpredictability of market cycles and the influence of investor behavior on performance outcomes.

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Episode notes

On today’s episode, Clay is joined by Rob Arnott to discuss the Fundamental Index, the equity risk premium, and where Rob believes we’re at in the value cycle.

Rob Arnott is the founder and chairman of the board of Research Affiliates. Rob plays an active role in the firm’s research, portfolio management, product innovation, business strategy, and client-facing activities. He is a member of the Executive Committee of the board. Rob is co-portfolio manager on the PIMCO All Asset and All Asset All Authority funds and the PIMCO RAE™ funds.

Over his career, Rob has endeavored to bridge the worlds of academic theorists and financial markets, challenging conventional wisdom and searching for solutions that add value for investors.

IN THIS EPISODE YOU’LL LEARN:

00:00 - Intro

02:02 - What the Fundamental Index is and how it has performed over the past two decades

16:32 - How to calculate the equity risk premium

23:44 - Why short-term forecasts are impossible to project accurately, but long-term forecasts are not

27:50 - Where Rob believes we are in the value cycle

44:03 - Why companies that get removed from the index tend to outperform those that get added

49:21 - How companies get added to the S&P 500

And so much more!

Disclaimer: Slight discrepancies in the timestamps may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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