Semil Shah is Out Of Office
Out of Office
Could prediction markets disrupt venture?
They explore using markets to vet founders, signal quality, and allocate LP capital to emerging managers.
In this episode of Out of Office, Michael Mignano meets up with renowned seed investor and friend Semil Shah in New York City to unpack what it really means to build and invest during a volatile moment in tech. Together they explore whether any startup category is safe now that OpenAI is shipping hit apps like Sora, and how generative media is reshaping everything from product launches to social networks. They dive into the coming saturation of launch videos, the collapse in cost of high-quality creative, and why founders will soon need entirely new tactics to stand out. They get into why seed investing feels increasingly under pressure from accelerators and megafunds, and how prediction markets like Polymarket might eventually disrupt venture capital itself.
Speaking in front of an audience of friends and colleagues at Joe’s Pub in New York City, The conversation veers into sports betting culture, the NBA scandal, and the broader rise of new markets. Despite the chaos, Semil explains why he still believes seed investing is the best job in the world and why the most exceptional founders will always find a path.
Episode Chapters:
0:00 – Cold open: launch videos and why everything looks the same
1:30 – New podcast formats
2:30 – The launch video arms race
6:30 – Generative media & the true cost collapse of video
10:59 – Is any app category safe from OpenAI?
13:10 – Sam Altman & execution
18:00 – How consumers actually use AI
20:01 – What Sora means for social media
24:09 – Seed investors and the “AI wave”
29:24 – Live at Joe’s Pub: Scott Rogowsky intro
30:39 – Sports and the betting market
35:40 – PolyMarket and prediction markets
43:30 – Why seed is under attack
47:20 – People vs. markets
52:20 – AI and category risk
59:00 – Signs of an AI bubble
1:06:03 – The AI roll-up craze
1:11:08 – Audience Q&A: prediction market manipulation and career pride
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