Fractures and Opportunities in One-Party States

In this packed episode, Chuck opens with a sobering assessment of President Trump's plummeting approval ratings and questions about his administration's credibility before diving into critical structural concerns about the Department of Justice's independence and the need to expand the House of Representatives. He shifts to Florida politics, where a brewing corruption scandal threatens the governor's race and Republicans are increasingly willing to challenge Ron DeSantis's weakened political standing. 

New York Congressman Dan Goldman joins for an extended interview about the concept of rule of law before and after his experience during impeachment proceedings. Goldman offers insights into Trump's challenges to fundamental constitutional principles and proposes concrete reforms to better protect America's democratic institutions, including codifying limits on presidential interference in prosecutions, strengthening congressional subpoena powers, and potentially restructuring the Justice Department with Federal Reserve-like independence.

The episode's second half features political handicapper Dave Wasserman analyzing the evolving electoral landscape heading into the midterms. Wasserman explains how understanding local communities is crucial to predicting election outcomes, while lamenting the lack of quality coverage in smaller markets. 

He delivers a forecast that Democrats could see sizable gains in the House, with Trump's tariff policies potentially hurting Republicans in farm states. The discussion explores gerrymandering's changing impact, with both parties now complaining about the practice, and examines how the 2030 census might reshape the electoral map. 

Finally, they discuss the prospect of a “blue wave” in the 2026 midterm elections and whether we could see one or both chambers of congress change hands.

Timeline

00:00 Multiple polls show sharp approval rating drop for Trump

03:00 Trump’s spokespeople are losing credibility

05:00 Department of Justice needs more independence 

7:30 The House of Representatives needs to be expanded

8:45 White House Correspondents weekend was awkward

12:15 Corruption scandal looming over Florida governor race

13:15 Florida Republicans are no longer afraid of Ron DeSantis

15:30 Ron DeSantis may be weaker, but Florida Democrats aren’t stronger

17:00 The Shedeur Sanders commentary was ridiculous

19:10 Congressman Dan Goldman joins the show

19:40 What are the highlights of his district, NY-10? 

26:35 What did "rule of law" mean to you before and after working on the impeachment proceedings? 

30:25 Fundamental tenets of rule of law are being challenged 

31:00 Amendments 4-10 are about equal protection under the law, for citizens and non-citizens 

34:20 Trump has exposed why government is susceptible to leaders willing to break their oath of office 

36:10 We need to codify into law that the president can't weigh in on individual prosecutions 

38:40 Enforcement of congressional subpoenas needs legal teeth 

41:30 Should we set up Justice with a level of independence like we did with the Federal Reserve? 

48:40 If impeachment couldn't hold Trump accountable, why would the justice system? 

50:10 Trump's conduct warranted prosecution 

52:55 The impeachment process is broken 

54:10 Trump has an unexplained infatuation for Vladimir Putin 

7:25 The Republican majority in the House has turned all of their authority over to Trump 

1:01:40 What can Democratic members of congress do other than speak out? 

1:05:25 If Democrats want to win in 2026, what should they be talking about? 

1:08:55 Is Andrew Cuomo vs Eric Adams really the best that NYC can do?

1:14:45 Chuck’s thoughts on his conversation with Dan Goldman

1:17:35 Dave Wasserman joins the show! 

1:19:35 Mainstreaming interest in political handicapping 

1:24:05 Understanding a local community is crucial to handicapping 

1:27:05 Smaller markets not getting coverage they deserve 

1:28:20 Determining how competitive a race will be? 

1:31:05 House map is less skewed than it used to be 

1:34:35 Complaining about gerrymandering has become more bipartisan 

1:36:05 Democrats could see sizeable midterm gains 

1:42:50 How will retirements affect the midterms? 

1:4:05 Tariffs will cost Republicans in the farm states 

1:45:05 Kansas headed toward swing state status? 

1:48:05 Reappropriation from 2030 census could add several new red seats 

1:49:35 Can Republicans further gerrymander states like Texas and Florida? 

1:53:35 Virginia governor race isn't that competitive 

1:58:50 Conventional wisdom is that Democrats shouldn't choose a woman for 28 

1:59:50 Is a blue wave developing? 

2:01:05 Trump doesn't care about Republicans other than himself

2:03:16 Chuck’s final thoughts