Excess Returns  cover image

Michael Mauboussin on Valuation, Base Rates and Expectations Investing

Excess Returns

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Investing or Speculating?

You mentioned your book, Expectations of Vesting earlier. And I largely credit that with reframing the way I think about valuation. So there really are three steps to the process. The first step is to go backwards and say, the only thing we know for sure in this whole equation is the price. Step two is an introducing historical analysis, but more importantly, strategic and financial analysis.

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