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278. “Big Historian” David Christian on Time, the Near and Far Future, Transhumanism, Interstellar Migrations, the Fate of Our Species, and the End of Time

The Michael Shermer Show

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Predictions Are Not Predictable

There are domains in which we can forecast with a precision that was able in the past. Astronomy is one, you know, a good astronomerwill tell me exactly when the next lunar eclipse will happen. A medicine is another. You know the course of medical diseases. But if you're in a domain where the process is going to be shaped by human beings, you are in a less predictable domain. People desperately want economic predictions, so they pay forecasters a lot. The prediction am but it it's a domain where predictions are unreliable. And being much more precise about what sort of main we're predicting in is, i think, the real key.

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