Are Developers Building Based on Outdated Migration Data?

#653: What happens when we actually check our predictions? In this episode we play clips from our 2023 conversation with Scott Trench from BiggerPockets and ask the uncomfortable question: were we right?

Two years ago we made some big calls about the housing market. Mortgage rates had doubled. Prices hadn’t crashed. Inventory was vanishing. Everyone had a theory about what would happen next. Now we look back with data and receipts to see which forecasts held up and which ones fell flat.

Scott joined us in 2023 to talk about the lock-in effect, the shortage of sellers, and why homebuilders might be stronger than expected. At the time it sounded contrarian. Two years later the evidence is in. Homeowners with low mortgage rates are still staying put. Builders have taken market share by offering creative incentives. Multifamily supply has exploded in some cities, while small residential properties have held their value better than many expected.

We revisit our old clips and grade them one by one. What did we get right about the housing market’s resilience and where did we miss? You’ll hear how rate volatility created bursts of demand, how regional migration reshaped supply, and why small investors can still find opportunities even when the headlines say otherwise.

This episode isn’t about victory laps. It’s about accountability. If you’ve ever wondered whether experts truly revisit their own calls, you’ll love this one.

Key Takeaways

• The lock-in effect remains one of the most powerful forces in today’s housing market

• Builders have been surprisingly resilient thanks to incentives and creative financing
• Multifamily oversupply is pressuring rents in some regions while small residential properties remain steady
• Market outcomes are more local than ever; national averages hide major differences
• Real estate predictions matter only if we’re willing to go back and test them

Resources and Links

Our course Your First Rental Property open for enrollment through October 30 at affordanything.com/enroll

Chapters

Note: Timestamps will vary on individual listening devices based on dynamic advertising segments. The provided timestamps are approximate and may be several minutes off due to changing ad lengths.

(0:00) Why we’re replaying our 2023 predictions

(4:24) The strange housing market of 2023

(5:04) The lock-in effect and vanishing inventory

(6:03) Builders finding ways to keep selling homes

(12:12) How rate dips created bidding wars

(14:03) The construction pipeline and what happened next

(37:24) 2025 check-in on prices and incentives

(55:06) Regional winners and losers

(58:27) Small residential versus large multifamily

(1:06:08) Final reflections and what we learned

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