Is $1/kg hydrogen the right target?

Low-carbon hydrogen has taken a few knocks in the headlines lately. There have been cancelled projects and fewer splashy announcements. Policy support has been jittery. Is momentum fading, or are we simply moving out of the hype phase and into the serious work of delivery? Host Ed Crooks puts that question to two industry leaders who are aiming to build hydrogen businesses at scale: Pierre-Étienne Franc, CEO of HY24, and Alex Tancock, CEO of Intercontinental Energy.

Pierre-Étienne argues the market is normalising rather than stalling. The projects that are reaching final investment decision have risen sharply in size, and production of electrolyser modules has scaled from tens of megawatts to hundreds of megawatts. One crucial change is that the centre of gravity of the industry is shifting toward Asia and the Middle East. 

The first wins can come where hydrogen already has a job to do: swapping grey molecules for green in fertilisers and refining. In the steel industry, the green premium for low-emissions metal looks manageable. And over time, hydrogen can start meeting power and industrial demand via ammonia and methanol. For heavy trucks, hydrogen may have a role as a complement to battery electric vehicles, deployed where long charge times and grid bottlenecks make them impractical.

Alex explains his production model. His 26-gigawatt Australian Renewable Energy Hub in the Pilbara would decarbonise roughly 4% of the region’s iron-ore output. It’s designed as repeatable “LEGO blocks”: the project can be build out with dozens of near-identical phases that drive down cost with each addition.

Some in the low-carbon hydrogen industry used to talk about how $1/kg was the production cost that would be needed for large-scale deployment. Alex says that benchmark is no longer relevant. What matters now is capex, the supply chain, and the cost of capital, he says, and China’s ultra-automated factories are slashing equipment costs. 

However, Europe still needs clearer rules to unlock demand. For sectors like sustainable aviation fuel, durable policy will be essential while costs remain high.

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