How to Become a Better Reasoner?

There's a very basic, philosophical, oh, sorry, a basic probablistic theorem. If you're trying to be basan, then you kind of try to keep that rule in mind for how you should be updating your beliefs as you learn new information. And i think people often don't realize is that some of the most successful founders in history completely flouted that common wisdom. It's really hard to do that if you're not letting yourself think about risk at all.

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