Incrementality Testing Lessons

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Dan Carnat is the Co-founder and CEO of Fiera Cosmetics, a mid 8-figure cosmetics brand founded in 2020.

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What happens when a fast-growing DTC brand pushes price testing too far? Dan Carnat, CEO and co-founder of Fiera Cosmetics, breaks down the actual impact of pricing on conversion, acquisition, andmost importantly: reorder rates and LTV.

We dig into why a $40 customer is fundamentally different from a $16 customer, how “cheap growth” distorted channel signals and buyer mix, and why Fiera reversed course by introducing a higher-priced, improved SKU while protecting existing demand.We also unpack a pragmatic attribution stack for operators who care about truth over dashboards: platform numbers as a directional input, MMM for hypothesis generation, and incrementality tests for validation, including how Meta campaigns created measurable halo on Amazon even when the product wasn’t listed there.

Dan details Fiera’s “reality testing” process for new products (closing the loop between 5-star lovers and 1-star detractors), the operational cadence required to ship 20+ products in development without eroding trust, and supply-chain tradeoffs in a color-heavy category.

If you’re navigating margin pressure, price strategy, channel diversification (including performance-driven affiliates), or product-market fit at scale, this episode will give you concrete frameworks you can implement immediately.

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CHAPTER TITLES:

00:01:29 - What Went Wrong With Price Testing?

00:08:12 - Making Mistakes Can Reveal Truth About Business

00:10:02 - Unit Economics In Your Business

00:11:20 - Introducing A New Product with High Price Point

00:19:38 - Product Development Process

00:23:56 - Dan’s Fitness Goals & Growth Hacks

00:25:03 - Operations & Supply Chain For Fiera

00:33:36 - Where Is The Value In A Cosmetics Business?

00:35:58 - Rebranding

00:39:02 - What Makes Dan Sleep At Night???

00:41:52 - Highlight of Incrementally Testing

00:44:08 - Complexity of Lead Attribution

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