3min chapter

Money For the Rest of Us cover image

How To Invest Based on Cycles

Money For the Rest of Us

CHAPTER

Investing Based on Market Cycles

When a market is cascading downward, investors can often be heard to say, we're not going to catch a falling knife. So why should we buy before we're sure the bottom has been reached? But that's what positioning for market cycles is. It's easier to do during thes extreme advents like we saw in two thousand eight. And it's also the hardest do, because that's where it takes the most fortitude.

00:00
Speaker 1
You just don't know. I was incrementally putting money to work in my personal portfolio as things were falling apart. Now, i waited t really, till march, till you started to see evidence within p m. I these business surveys done around the world to see that things were starting to change a little bit. But you can't move completely all at once, and you can't move completely in all at once. You hade to be an incrementalist. You're trying to have the marked tendency on your side. But that's what positioning for market cycles is. It's easier to do during thes extreme advents, like we saw in two thousand eight. It's also the hardest do, because that's where it takes the most fortitude. And that's why you kind of have to be gradual in your approach. So i, i bought this convertible bond fund. I sold half in march 20 tenth, or, sorry, may 20 tenth, and the other half august fourth, 20 eleventh. I made 23 thousand dollars, 58 %. But that was just one investment. And i didn't know, you you can't. Now, he says, when a market is cascading downward, investors can often be heard to say, we're not going to catch a falling knife in otherwords, the trannit is downward, and there's no way to know when it will stop. So why should we buy before we're sure the bottom has been reached? But i think they're really saying is we're scared, in particular, of buying before the decline has stopped, and thus of looking bad. So we're ging to wait until the bottom has been reached, the dust has settled and the uncertainty has been resolved. You can't, and it's embarrassing, to buy early. We bought emerging markets three weeks early in two thousand eight. We bought some us. Stocks early in two thousand eight in our institutional portfolos. And it was embarrassing. But that's part of investing, because we can't. We make inferences about what's happening. We try to get in line with the market tendencies. We try to have reasonable assumptions, and then we invest. And that's how to invest based on cycles. I have enjoyed teaching you about investing on this podcast for over eight years now. But i also love to write. There's a benefit to writing over podcasting, and that's why i write a weekly email new letter called the insiders gide. In that news letter i can share charts, grafts and other materials that can help you better understand investing. It's some of the best writing i do each week. I spend a couple of hours on that news letter each week, trying to make it helpful to you. If you're not on that list, please subscribe. Go to money for the rest of us dot com to subscribe to the free insiders guide weekly newsletter. Everything i've shared with youin this episits ben for general education, ae not considered your specific risk situation. I 've not provided estment advice, simply general education of money, investment in economy. Have
Speaker 4
a great week.

Get the Snipd
podcast app

Unlock the knowledge in podcasts with the podcast player of the future.
App store bannerPlay store banner

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode

Save any
moment

Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways

Save any
moment

Hear something you like? Tap your headphones to save it with AI-generated key takeaways

Share
& Export

Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more

Share
& Export

Send highlights to Twitter, WhatsApp or export them to Notion, Readwise & more

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

AI-powered
podcast player

Listen to all your favourite podcasts with AI-powered features

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode

Discover
highlights

Listen to the best highlights from the podcasts you love and dive into the full episode