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Oil Will Dethrone The Fed (Here’s Why) | Harris Kupperman & Porter Collins
Forward Guidance
The Fed's Thinking and Doing
The current terminal Fed funds rate is about, I think, 4.6% in the spring of 2023. If they stop right here and CPI is 8 and 9 and they stop at 3 or 3 and a half, I think the 30 year just detonates. Once you go above about 100% of debt to GDP, every decision you make sucks. There's no good decisions. The only good solution is to take GDP growth up to 10%. That's the only way you solve this thing. Otherwise, you just want this hamster wheel,. which is why countries like Argentina can never get their act in order because everything they do is screwed in some way.
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