I think something that is very likely is we'll end with a frozen conflict and Putin has a number of frozen conflicts around his borders where Ukraine is constantly worrying about what's happening over in the east. The Germans are sponsoring a congress, a conference in Berlin to talk about what happens when peace comes which I think is really important. On the slightly more cheerful side it may be that Russia is going to be less capable of causing international damage. If Putin has done one thing apart from creating a much stronger Ukrainian nationalism then he should be regarded as one of the fathers of Ukrainian independence. But if he's done one thing which he didn't intend to do he has much reduced the power and influence and

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