Is There a Modeling Framework for the Future?

It's not just in the solar industry that incumbent modellers failed to anticipate improvements. It's a very common weakness in all modelling, as forecasters don't want to be prophets and are conservative about what they can see. The answer is blindingly obvious - it's because they did not take into account any sort of a learning curve. But you know from people like doyn farmer at oxford that technology learning curves are very sticky. So simply there's no excuse to fail to model those that that framework into your modelling.