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The German Case and the Cold War
World War I resulting from the rise of Germany and efforts of Great Britain to cope with it is most analogous case. The Chinese, when I talk to them about this, the case they like the best is the rise of the US in its rivalry with Great Britain. Once Germany was reunified, given Prussia and now that it had become a full German state, its growth rate began to exceed that of Great Britain. By 1900 its GDP was equal and by 1914, 25% larger. As it got stronger, German said, well, why do everybody else have colonies and we don't? So we should be able to compete.