“Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of the RAISE Act” by Eric Neyman
LessWrong (Curated & Popular)
00:00
Appendix: Election Modeling Details
Eric dives into modeling assumptions about the primary, vote margins, and candidate field affecting close-vote probabilities.
Play episode from 35:19
Transcript
Transcript
Episode notes
Written by Eric Neyman, in my personal capacity. The views expressed here are my own. Thanks to Zach Stein-Perlman, Jesse Richardson, and many others for comments.
Over the last several years, I’ve written a bunch of posts about politics and political donations. In this post, I’ll tell you about one of the best donation opportunities that I’ve ever encountered: donating to Alex Bores, who announced his campaign for Congress today.
If you’re potentially interested in donating to Bores, my suggestion would be to:
---
Outline:
(01:16) Introduction
(04:55) Things I like about Alex Bores
(08:55) Are there any things about Bores that give me pause?
(09:43) Cost-effectiveness analysis
(10:10) How does an extra $1k affect Alex Bores' chances of winning?
(12:22) How good is it if Alex Bores wins?
(12:54) Direct influence on legislation
(14:46) The House is a first step toward even more influential positions
(15:35) Encouraging more action in this space
(16:20) How does this compare to other AI safety donation opportunities?
(16:37) Comparison to technical AI safety
(17:28) Comparison to non-politics AI governance
(18:25) Comparison to other political opportunities
(19:39) Comparison to non-AI safety opportunities
(21:20) Logistics and details of donating
(21:24) Who can donate?
(21:34) How much can I donate?
(23:16) How do I donate?
(24:07) Will my donation be public? What are the career implications of donating?
(25:37) Is donating worth the career capital costs in your case?
(26:32) Some examples of potential donor profiles
(30:34) A more quantitative cost-benefit analysis
(32:33) Potential concerns
(32:37) What if Bores loses?
(33:21) What about the press coverage?
(34:09) Feeling rushed?
(35:16) Appendix
(35:19) Details of the cost-effectiveness analysis of donating to Bores
(35:25) Probability that Bores loses by fewer than 1000 votes
(38:37) How much marginal funding would net Bores an extra vote?
(40:42) Early donations help consolidate support
(42:47) One last adjustment: the big tech super PAC
(45:25) Cost-benefit analysis of donating to Bores vs. adverse career effects
(45:40) The philanthropic benefit of donating
(46:32) The altruistic cost of donating
(48:18) Cost-benefit analysis
(49:01) Caveats
The original text contained 14 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
---
First published:
October 20th, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TbsdA7wG9TvMQYMZj/consider-donating-to-alex-bores-author-of-the-raise-act-1
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
Over the last several years, I’ve written a bunch of posts about politics and political donations. In this post, I’ll tell you about one of the best donation opportunities that I’ve ever encountered: donating to Alex Bores, who announced his campaign for Congress today.
If you’re potentially interested in donating to Bores, my suggestion would be to:
- Read this post to understand the case for donating to Alex Bores.
- Understand that political donations are a matter of public record, and that this may have career implications. Decide if you are willing to donate to Alex Bores anyway.
- If you would like to donate to Alex Bores: donations today, Monday, Oct 20th, are especially valuable. You can donate at this link.
---
Outline:
(01:16) Introduction
(04:55) Things I like about Alex Bores
(08:55) Are there any things about Bores that give me pause?
(09:43) Cost-effectiveness analysis
(10:10) How does an extra $1k affect Alex Bores' chances of winning?
(12:22) How good is it if Alex Bores wins?
(12:54) Direct influence on legislation
(14:46) The House is a first step toward even more influential positions
(15:35) Encouraging more action in this space
(16:20) How does this compare to other AI safety donation opportunities?
(16:37) Comparison to technical AI safety
(17:28) Comparison to non-politics AI governance
(18:25) Comparison to other political opportunities
(19:39) Comparison to non-AI safety opportunities
(21:20) Logistics and details of donating
(21:24) Who can donate?
(21:34) How much can I donate?
(23:16) How do I donate?
(24:07) Will my donation be public? What are the career implications of donating?
(25:37) Is donating worth the career capital costs in your case?
(26:32) Some examples of potential donor profiles
(30:34) A more quantitative cost-benefit analysis
(32:33) Potential concerns
(32:37) What if Bores loses?
(33:21) What about the press coverage?
(34:09) Feeling rushed?
(35:16) Appendix
(35:19) Details of the cost-effectiveness analysis of donating to Bores
(35:25) Probability that Bores loses by fewer than 1000 votes
(38:37) How much marginal funding would net Bores an extra vote?
(40:42) Early donations help consolidate support
(42:47) One last adjustment: the big tech super PAC
(45:25) Cost-benefit analysis of donating to Bores vs. adverse career effects
(45:40) The philanthropic benefit of donating
(46:32) The altruistic cost of donating
(48:18) Cost-benefit analysis
(49:01) Caveats
The original text contained 14 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
---
First published:
October 20th, 2025
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TbsdA7wG9TvMQYMZj/consider-donating-to-alex-bores-author-of-the-raise-act-1
---
Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
The AI-powered Podcast Player
Save insights by tapping your headphones, chat with episodes, discover the best highlights - and more!
