Presilience and Cognitive Biases with Dr. Gav Schneider and Shreen Williams

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Premortems to Reduce Surprise

Shreen advocates premortem analysis to surface failure modes, reverse-engineer responses, and reduce initiative misses.

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Episode notes

Welcome to RIMScast. Your host is Justin Smulison, Business Content Manager at RIMS, the Risk and Insurance Management Society.

In this episode, Justin interviews two guests who presented at the RIMS ERM Conference 2025 in Seattle, Washington. First, Dr. Gav Schneider, Group CEO Risk 2 Solution Group and Founder, Institute of Presilience Risk 2 Solution, and second, Shreen Williams, Founder & CEO, Risky Business SW, LLC, and a member of the RIMS Rising Risk Professional Advisory Group. Dr. Schneider explained the meaning of Presilience and risk intelligence in ERM. Shreen Williams discussed the cognitive biases that can be mitigated through the six stages of an ERM Framework.

Listen for insights into implementing an ERM Framework in your organization.

Key Takeaways:

[:01] About RIMS and RIMScast.

[:17] About this episode of RIMScast. Our interviews were recorded live on site at the RIMS ERM Conference 2025 in Seattle. Our guests are Dr. Gav Schneider and Shreen Williams. We're going to have fun in this episode! But first…

[:48] The next Virtual RIMS-CRMP Exam Prep will be held on December 9th and 10th. From December 15 through the 18th CBCP and RIMS will present the RIMS-CRMP Exam Prep Boot Camp.

[1:05] Another virtual course will be held on January 14th and 15th, 2026. These are virtual courses. Links to these courses can be found through the Certifications page of RIMS.org and through this episode's show notes.

[1:18] RIMS Virtual Workshops! "Managing Data for ERM" will be led again by Pat Saporito. That session will start on December 11th. Registration closes on December 10th. RIMS members always enjoy deep discounts on the virtual workshops.

[1:37] The full schedule of virtual workshops can be found on the RIMS.org/education and RIMS.org/education/online-learning pages. A link is also in this episode's notes.

[1:48] The RIMS CRO Certificate Program in Advanced Enterprise Risk Management is hosted by the famous James Lam. This is a live, virtual program that helps elevate your expertise and career in ERM.

[2:01] You can enroll now for the next cohort, which will be held over 12 weeks from January through March of 2026. Registration closes on January 5th. Or Spring ahead and register for the cohort held from April through June of 2026. Registration closes on April 6th.

[2:21] Links to registration and enrollment are in this episode's show notes.

[2:25] This episode was recorded at the RIMS ERM Conference 2025. We've covered a lot of ERM ground in the last few episodes, and for those who want to catch up, I've included a link to the RIMS ERM Special Digital Edition of Risk Management magazine in this episode's notes.

[2:49] RIMScast ERM coverage is linked as well. Enhance your ERM knowledge with RIMS.

[2:54] On with the show! We are following up last week's episode with ERM Global Award of Distinction winner Sadig Hajiyev by featuring interviews with two of the presenters who appeared at the RIMS ERM Conference, Dr. Gav Schneider and Shreen Williams.

[3:12] Long-time RIMScast listeners may remember Dr. Gav Schneider from an episode in November of 2023. We were delighted that he made the trip all the way from Australia to join us at the ERM Conference in Seattle.

[3:27] Dr. Gav is the Group CEO at Risk2Solution Group and the Founder of the Institute of Presilience. The title of his session on November 17th was "Embedding Presilience and Risk Intelligence into ERM." This harkens back to his prior episode about wicked problems.

[3:45] We're going to start there and discuss how presilience takes that thinking to the next level for ERM leaders, and we're going to get some of his risk philosophies and have a great time. Let's get to it!

[3:56] Interview! Dr. Gav Schneider, welcome back to RIMScast!

[4:24] Dr. Schneider is here at the RIMS ERM Conference for the first time. It's the second-highest-attended ERM Conference in RIMS history. His session, later today, is called "Embedding Presilience and Risk Intelligence into ERM."

[4:54] On Dr. Schneider's last visit to RIMScast, he talked about wicked problems. How does presilience take that mindset and thinking to the next level for ERM?

[5:08] Dr. Schneider says the core idea of ERM is about getting scalable decision-making, recording, and outcomes, in terms of risk, for your organization. More and more, our organizations are facing these wicked problems.

[5:25] We can't function anymore in a world of absolutes. When we plug risk intelligence into the way we think, act, and plan, we become adaptive. We also become opportunity-centric.

[5:37] A wicked problem is not easily solved. When you implement a solution, it often leads to more problems. You have to be able to learn. If you can't learn, you can't adapt.

[6:17] What are the core components of the Presilience Framework? Dr. Schneider says, simplistically, we think about tackling risk at three levels: the self, the team, and the organization. Then we overlay that with people and process, connected through leadership.

[6:34] To make that work, we have to develop a set of core attributes: situational awareness, critical thinking, enhanced decision-making, effective and directive coms, the ability to act and enact, and the ability to learn and grow.

[6:46] When you can plug that into your architecture, leveraging insight, hindsight, and foresight, you then can make the right calls about whether or not to do something. It becomes an overlay model for most ERM-type structures, where we can plug the human piece into the system.

[7:15] Dr. Schneider says the core aim of ERM turns risk management into a team sport, with everyone across an organization reporting, collaborating, and understanding to make great decisions about where the organization is and where it's going, not where we think it is.

[7:32] To do that, we need to plug certain things into the ecosystem of the organization, some of which are policies, procedures, and tech. Most ERM experts do that. The piece that we've ignored is the human part, because it's hard.

[7:49] Dr. Schneider has compiled The Organizational Risk Culture Standard. It took about nine months of work. It was a thorough process. Five experts wrote it, 15 peers reviewed it, and 11 organizations have approved it, endorsed it, and are supporting it.

[8:09] For years, Dr. Schneider had heard that organizations would not focus on human-centricities that they couldn't measure.

[8:17] Dr. Schneider's framework has 10 domains with a maturity model that aligns beautifully with RIMS's ERM Model. It's built to encapsulate and incorporate ISO 31000 and COSO. Dr. Schnieider has just released it, free to download.

[8:39] Dr. Schneider is excited about presenting his session in a couple of hours. Everyone tells him that the RIMS ERM Conference is the sharp end of the spear, with the smartest risk people. The session is "Embedding Presilience and Risk Intelligence into ERM."

[9:10] Session attendees will learn about risk intelligence. Dr. Schneider's definition is an applied attribute or living skill that enables you to seize upside opportunities while you manage potential negative outcomes.

[9:44] When you speak of risk intelligence as a living skill and applied attribute, it becomes an ability to scale great decision-making. You want risk-intelligent people, working in risk-intelligent teams, empowered and structured into a risk-intelligent organization.

[10:18] Dr. Schneider says if we can't get those three layers to integrate and work together, you get frustrated stakeholders. Get your ERM team working to get everyone to understand the basics of risk reporting, using the metrics, and sharing information.

[10:33] Justin compares it to the gears in a watch. Dr. Schneider agrees; there's not one moving piece, it's a complex ecosystem in most organizations because humans are complex. We're relying on tech and on variables we don't control.

[10:46] Dr. Schneider says, in the conference, everyone's accepted how disruptive the current climate is, how difficult it is to forecast, and how uncertainty and volatility are dominating.

[10:59] With that in mind, we've got to think of it differently. You can't force people to adopt a system and think it will work. If you want to get a high-performance culture, ERM is an incredibly useful tool, but only if people want it, like it, want to use it, and understand the benefit it adds.

[11:17] Dr. Schneider thinks ERM is going to take a massive leap forward because of generative AI and because we've done well in process-based risk management. There are models, standards, and tools we can reference on how to do this.

[11:32] Why most organizations fail is that people don't understand people and the drivers people have. The one thing that Dr. Schneider would love people to take away from his session is that "I have to start with me."

[11:43] Dr. Schneider continues. If I'm trying to get people to do something, I need to understand the voice in my head, what's coming out of my mouth, and what my actions are. If I can't control that, what makes me think I'm going to change organizational culture?

[11:54] It starts with me. Then I can move to us, and we can get this high-performing risk team. If I can get a high-performing risk team, now we are ready to take it through the organization. We can be the real value-add.

[12:06] The risk departments of the future are not going to be what they were or what they are now. They're not going to be compliance departments anymore.

[12:14] Risk departments of the future are going to be insight, hindsight, and foresight departments. They're going to create understanding of what's happened, what's happening, and what we need to do to capitalize on opportunity, while we manage downside.

[12:34] Dr. Schneider points out that if we're looking at the same thing, we see something different. That's great for managing bias, but terrible if we can't align because we'll each think we're right, and pull apart.

[12:47] One of the missions is to develop adaptable, high-performing humans who can leverage tach, collaborate, and solve problems. That's the future of risk management.

[13:05] Dr. Gav Schneider, I look forward to popping into your session today. It is called "Embedding Presilience and Risk Intelligence into ERM."

[13:19] Quick Break! RISKWORLD 2026 will be held from May 3rd through the 6th in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. RISKWORLD attracts more than 10,000 risk professionals from across the globe. It's time to Connect, Cultivate, and Collaborate with them. Booth sales are open now!

[13:42] Registration is open for RIMS members. General registration and speaker registration will open on December 3rd. Marketplace and Hospitality badges will be available starting on March 3rd. Links are in this episode's show notes.

[13:55] Let's Bring out Our Next Guest, the Founder and CEO of Risky Business SW LLC, Shreen Williams!

[14:05] If you are a regular reader of RIMS Risk Management magazine, you may recognize her name from the byline of a recent article, "How to Overcome Cognitive Biases in Risk Management."

[14:19] Shreen is also a member of the Rising Risk Professional Advisory Group here at RIMS. She presented at the ERM Conference a session in the Foundational Level, called "Beating the Bias: Exposing and Combating Cognitive Biases in ERM."

[14:35] Justin sat in on this session, and he had some follow-ups about cognitive biases and how they relate to ERM and risk management, generally. If you missed the session or have not yet read the article, this will give you a taste of what you missed or what you're going to read.

[14:53] We're going to have a lot of fun! Let's get to it!

[14:56] Interview! Shreen Williams, welcome to RIMScast!

[15:05] Justin sat in on Shreen's session, "Beating the Bias: Exposing and Combating Cognitive Biases in ERM." Shreen explains that there are more than 150 biases from the standpoint of the psychology of human behavior.

[15:29] Shreen focuses on the ones that are relevant to the ERM process. There are more than enough. In her presentation, Shreen focused on seven biases. The lifecycle for the ERM process has six stages. Five stages cover one bias each; the Risk Assessment stage covers two biases.

[16:00] Justin mentions that for anyone who attended, the handout is available through the RIMS Events App. Shreen says she also put a QR code on the deck, so if you got the deck, you have that code, as well.

[16:27] Shreen has an audio-visual platform she uses to get her thought leadership content out about what she loves most. She calls herself a risk nerd. She likes talking about the discipline in a way that's accessible and digestible to the end user.

[16:43] Shreen says most of the time, you'll see the term ERM delivered in such a complex and jargon-filled way that it turns folks off who are not in this sector. That leads to confusion, overwhelm, and killing their engagement.

[16:54] Shreen loves doing interviews to talk about the discipline in a way that is approachable, accessible, and digestible to the end user without any academic discipline.

[17:05] In her session, Shreen said that cognitive biases often embed themselves in ERM processes without detection. Shreen describes a bias in the first stage of the ERM process life cycle, Identification. The bias that creeps in is Complexity Bias.

[17:33] Shreen says that Complexity Bias is when organizations or people believe that the more complex something is, the more superior it is. It's not always true, and it's the worst posture to have in ERM.

[17:48] Shreen gives a Complexity Bias example. A company hires a consultant to create an ERM Program and gets a 200-page framework to give to employees. The executives feel smart. The front-line employees are overwhelmed. It's too complex. It can't be operationalized.

[18:13] You don't have consistent risk participation because the people don't know how to do it.

[18:17] Shreen explains her technique to handle Complexity Bias. If you can't explain something in two minutes or less, go back to the table and try again. The more digestible you make the lingo, the more it will stick.

[18:39] Shreen is a visual learner. She sees things clearly if you show them in an infographic. Different generations may learn differently. Shreen is very close to Gen Z. They keep her young! They also give her fresh perspectives on the discipline.

[19:09] Ten years ago, most of the college curriculum for risk management was highly insurance-centric: actuary, underwriting, claims adjudication.

[19:21] Shreen started in the banking sector, where ERM is prevalent and mature. Other industries didn't see the need for it. There were no regulatory requirements for it.

[19:30] From the young people she coaches and mentors, Shreen has seen that universities are now teaching not only the insurance side but also ERM, and are framing the discipline as Risk Resilience.

[19:51] Shreen says young people are graduating with a broader perspective of the discipline, which opens opportunities for them.

[20:00] Shreen has said she was the sober adult in the room while the leadership doused itself in champagne. She embraced that role when she joined the tech sector. Before then, Shreen worked for companies in heavily regulated industries: finance, transportation, and government.

[20:18] Shreen says tech is completely night and day different from those industries. She says it's a hyper-close space. You have to get to things quickly and tell leaders what you are going to do immediately. You have about three minutes in front of the board. You have to be quick.

[20:31] You have to be highly visual. You don't need 50 bullet points on the screen to make your point. You should be the expert. The visual just makes it more accessible to the people.

[20:46] Shreen explains Premortem Analysis. We all talk about postmortems and after-actions. This makes ERM practitioners cringe.

[21:05] Everything that happened was something you told the people was something on the table, and no one took you seriously, so now you're reactive and resolving whatever risk materialized.

[21:16] Premortems are a favorite of Shreen's because you get to work through whatever that scenario is or that initiative is and flesh it out, from end to end. Then you reverse-engineer it and go back for each opportunity or risk you identify, good or bad, and you get to the best response.

[21:30] If the initiative gets approved, you've already flushed out everything that could go wrong.

[21:51] Shreen told a joke during the session that if you want your initiative to die, take it to ERM, and they'll tell you no. Shreen says, No, take it to ERM to get a clear and confident Yes.

[22:14] Justin tells Shreen, You left us yesterday with a great sentiment that bias is not the enemy, blindness is. That hearkens back to everything in a premortem analysis.

[22:27] Shreen's final words to the audience: "For those who are new to the discipline, do not be turned away or feel like you're not enough or something's wrong with you because you don't understand it. It's not you. It's likely the person or textbook you're getting information from.

[22:40] "Most of the things that teach about ERM are highly theoretical. If you can find someone to align with, someone who's a mentor to you, see what they do, and how they go about it, highs and lows, you'll learn a lot more about the discipline hands-on than from any book.

[22:55] Blindness and blind spots you cannot see. Sometimes you're focused like a racehorse with blinders on. With blinders on, you cannot avoid bias. Humans are a big part of the process. With humans come human biases.

[23:21] The mitigant for bias is to have an awareness of it and have your little toolbox of those leading biases that you can go around to mitigate.

[23:31] Justin says, Shreen, it's been such a pleasure.

[23:36] Special thanks once again to Dr. Gav Schneider and Shreen Williams for joining us here on RIMScast. They were fantastic speakers. I've got links to Dr. Schneider's prior episode and Shreen's RIMS Risk Management magazine article in this episode's show notes.

[23:54] Be sure to check out last week's episode with Sadig Hajiyev, one of the two winners of the RIMS ERM Global Award of Distinction. For more ERM Conference coverage, check out the RIMS LinkedIn page for all sorts of photos, videos, and coverage of this fantastic event.

[24:11] We had a great time, and we look forward to seeing you next year in Washington, D.C. for the RIMS ERM Conference 2026.

[24:19] Plug Time! You can sponsor a RIMScast episode for this, our weekly show, or a dedicated episode. Links to sponsored episodes are in the show notes.

[24:47] RIMScast has a global audience of risk and insurance professionals, legal professionals, students, business leaders, C-Suite executives, and more. Let's collaborate and help you reach them! Contact pd@rims.org for more information.

[25:04] Become a RIMS member and get access to the tools, thought leadership, and network you need to succeed. Visit RIMS.org/membership or email membershipdept@RIMS.org for more information.

[25:22] Risk Knowledge is the RIMS searchable content library that provides relevant information for today's risk professionals. Materials include RIMS executive reports, survey findings, contributed articles, industry research, benchmarking data, and more.

[25:38] For the best reporting on the profession of risk management, read Risk Management Magazine at RMMagazine.com. It is written and published by the best minds in risk management.

[25:52] Justin Smulison is the Business Content Manager at RIMS. Please remember to subscribe to RIMScast on your favorite podcasting app. You can email us at Content@RIMS.org.

[26:04] Practice good risk management, stay safe, and thank you again for your continuous support!

Links:

RIMS-CRO Certificate Program In Advanced Enterprise Risk Management | Jan‒March 2026 Cohort | Led by James Lam

RIMS-Certified Risk Management Professional (RIMS-CRMP)

RISKWORLD 2026 Registration — Open for exhibitors, members, and non-members!

Reserve your booth at RISKWORLD 2026!

The Strategic and Enterprise Risk Center

RIMS Diversity Equity Inclusion Council

RIMS Risk Management magazine | Contribute

RIMS ERM Special Edition 2025

RIMS Newsroom: "Two Dynamic ERM Programs Win Top Honor at RIMS ERM Conference 2025"

RIMS Risk Management Magazine: "How to Overcome Cognitive Biases in Risk Management"