How to think like a mathematician
The Infinite Monkey Cage
Why You Can't Make These Predictions, but There's Still Error
I don't think you can, basically, in short. And the reason why you can's is because I'm sitting here saying, yeah, you can make these predictions, but there's still, as Randall said, there's still error. When you start taking those predictions too seriously, that's where things start to become really problematic. Because then you start applying them to individuals, as though it's like an absolute cold-hard fact, like, somebody must murder. It's true, though. You do have statistics where huge numbers of, say, one group are committing crimes more than another. Or in a city, I would think, mathematically speaking, crimes are happening more often
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