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The Market Indicator Flashing ‘Recession’

The Breakdown

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The Fed Hitting Rates Means Less Liquidity

Short term yields are rising, reflecting expectations of rate hikes coming from the fed. The longer dated yields aren't moving at the same pace. Some think this is the bond market signalling that they believe short term policy of rate hikes will actually hurt the economy in the long term. Yield curve inversions have preceded every recession in the last 60 years. Recession usually occurs 12 to 18 months after an inversion. A deeper inversion would warrant much more attention as it may be a sign we're headed towards a recession.

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